Cotton club business rose by nearly 50% in 2021
In 2021, according to the data of business society, the price of 3128b lint at the beginning of the year was 14981 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year was 22206 yuan / ton, an increase of 48.23%. On the whole, the cotton market is in a rising channel this year, with an amazing increase. By the end of November, due to weak demand, the cotton price began to enter the downward consolidation stage.
2、 Review of cotton market trend
In 2021, the domestic cotton spot market showed a trend of shock and gradual rise. In the first half of the year, the market fluctuated and stabilized. In early March, the market once rose and then fell back. By the end of September, affected by the rise of commodity market prices and the sharp rise of domestic seed cotton purchase prices, the domestic and foreign cotton prices rose sharply to a new high in recent 10 years, and then the market was all the way high, The highest price was more than 22900 yuan / ton. By the end of November, due to the global market turmoil triggered by the new mutant strain, the downstream consumer demand was sluggish, and the cotton price turned down again, and gradually stabilized by the end of December.
From the trend chart of cotton market in the past decade, it can be seen that this year's cotton price has reached the highest level in the past decade.
First quarter: at the beginning of the new year, the cotton price was in a stable trend, the market was at the average level over the years except 2020, the market supply was sufficient, and the overall sales were smooth. After February, the cotton market rose significantly. Driven by the slowdown of the global epidemic situation, the continuous promotion of vaccination and the US $1.9 trillion stimulus policy, the international cotton price rose sharply. Stimulated by foreign cotton, the domestic market rose to a three-year high after the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises started earlier, the operating rate was relatively high, and the demand for orders accelerated, promoting a new round of replenishment. At the same time, the prices of many textile raw materials such as polyester, nylon and spandex in the domestic market increased significantly at the beginning of the year, which contributed to the rise of cotton prices. While the market of textile raw materials, including cotton, is rising, the pressure on downstream enterprises is increasing, and the production, order arrangement and profits of textile enterprises are greatly affected. The willingness of downstream textile enterprises to replenish high priced raw materials is reduced, and the spot market of cotton is falling. Influenced by macro factors, cotton futures fell sharply. In the high-level dialogue between China and the United States in late March, there were great differences in negotiations. Coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar, the European epidemic rebounded again, H & M stopped Xinjiang cotton and other negative news, the domestic cotton price decreased significantly, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, and the follow-up of new textile orders downstream was weak.
Second quarter: in April, the storm of Xinjiang cotton gradually subsided, the cotton price stabilized after a round of decline, and ushered in a small rise after the Qingming holiday. Macroscopically, the economic data in the first quarter were boosted, market confidence was restored, and the expectation of order return in Southeast Asia was enhanced. After the second half of April, the current cotton futures market rose significantly. The news of additional quota issuance at the end of the month was implemented, which is conducive to textile and garment foreign trade companies to receive orders, reduce raw material procurement costs and improve product competitiveness. The cotton market rose in early May, while Zheng cotton rose with bulk commodities. In the middle of the year, the state repeatedly reminded the risk of rapid rise in commodity prices and made arrangements to ensure supply and stabilize prices. The domestic cotton price rose and fell with the rise of the commodity market, and the market remained weak and downward by the end of the month. At the beginning of June, the spot trading volume of lint increased, and the domestic cotton price experienced a technical rebound after a period of decline. In terms of futures, driven by the accelerated economic recovery of China, Europe and the United States and the continued strong economic stimulus of the U.S. government, Zheng Mian rose with the foreign cotton, breaking through the 17000 yuan / ton mark, a new high since the epidemic. At the end of June, the cotton textile industry entered the traditional off-season, and the overall orders of the industry slowed down compared with previous months. From January to June, the yarn output was 13.558 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8%. Under the condition of high spinning profit, the upward support of cotton price is obvious. Internationally, the global cotton ending inventory decreased, the US cotton export increased, the US stock market hit a new high, and the international cotton price continued to rise.
Third quarter: domestic cotton inventory decreased month by month, and cotton showed a steady upward trend in July. Although it was in the traditional off-season, autumn and winter orders were issued in advance, the operating rate of weaving enterprises downstream of textile enterprises increased, enterprises were optimistic about the future market, and there was a large demand for cotton raw materials. At the beginning of this month, the reserve cotton began to rotate, and the bidding of enterprises was active, driving the domestic cotton price to rise sharply. In early August, under the influence of the spread of delta mutant virus, Zheng Mian fell and adjusted, and the spot market fell accordingly. However, with strong downstream demand support, the market rebounded again. The inventory of cotton yarn mills remained low and the demand for cotton was high. At the same time, the transaction of reserve cotton was hot, and the transaction price rose all the way, supporting the cotton market to a high level. In the second half of the month, the macro environment weakened, the commodity market weakened, the downstream cotton yarn caught up with the rising heat and cooled down, and the non-textile cotton enterprises stopped participating in bidding for reserve cotton to cool the market. Zheng cotton futures ended its high level, and the spot cotton also declined. At the beginning of September, with the previous trend of cotton, the demand was poor and the market was depressed. Later, the new cotton picking started one after another. The cotton purchase price boosted the market and driven the trend of cotton in the short term. In the middle of the month, under the influence of the "double control" policy, the textile factories and dyeing factories in some downstream areas were greatly affected, which directly led to the reduction of the demand for raw materials. With the gradual increase of the scope of double control, the inventory of yarn and grey cloth increased, superimposed with the pressure and risks such as the slowdown of overseas demand growth and the high price of raw materials, and the trend of cotton price decreased. By the end of the month, driven by the sharp opening of the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton, and the continuous surge of ice cotton, the settlement price exceeded US $1 for the first time in ten years, creating a new height in history. Driven by Zheng Mian again, it rose rapidly, reaching a high level since May 2012. The rise of Zheng Mian also supported the rise of spot and reserve cotton prices.
Fourth quarter: during the long October holiday, due to the influence of the weather in the cotton area of Xinjiang, funds took the opportunity to hype. Zheng Mian opened the trading limit on October 8, and the price reached a high level in recent ten years. In the same period, Xinjiang seed cotton was gradually purchased and listed. Cotton farmers expected good price trend in the later stage, and the purchase price of seed cotton continued to rise. The state has strengthened the linkage supervision of the futures and spot market, continued the release of reserve cotton, the peak season of the textile industry is not prosperous, enterprises in many places continue to be affected by power production restrictions, insufficient startup, less new orders, and the downstream demand has not been significantly improved. The cotton price fluctuated at a high level in November, and Xinmian began to be listed on a large scale. The purchase market price decreased compared with that in October, and the cotton market tended to be rational. The new variant strain detonated the global market turmoil, which dragged down the sharp decline of American cotton. The overseas epidemic has repeatedly worried the market. The international cotton market has weakened under the influence of the consumer side, and the cotton price has turned downward. With the promotion of the listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory is relatively high, which puts pressure on the cotton price to a certain extent. The inventory of downstream cotton yarn enterprises has gradually increased, the order demand has not been significantly improved, and the accumulation of finished products has led to the cautious attitude of yarn mills towards cotton procurement, the transmission of high price cotton to the downstream is difficult, and the cotton textile is under the double attack of high cost and weak demand. In December, the cotton market remained high and volatile. After the suspension of the supply of reserve cotton, Zheng Mian rose slightly, the accumulation of cotton yarn enterprises continued, and the yarn inventory reached a five-year high. The order receiving volume of the textile industry in the first quarter of 2022 was lower than expected. On the whole, the upstream and downstream of cotton were still in the deadlock of high cotton price and weak demand, and the expectation of replenishing the inventory in the downstream textile market before the Spring Festival was weakening, Domestic and foreign sales orders continued to be weak. The epidemic situation has been repeated in many places in China. Zhejiang involves chemical fiber, weaving, printing and dyeing and logistics. The operating rate of enterprises has decreased, the downstream demand has been in a depressed state for a long time, textile enterprises have great resistance to high cotton prices, and the cost transmission to the downstream is not smooth.
3、 Analysis of domestic cotton supply and demand
Domestic cotton output: the national cotton output decreased slightly and the unit yield increased
According to the national cotton output data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national cotton output was 5.731 million tons in 2021, a decrease of 180000 tons or 3.0% over 2020. Among them, the cotton output in Xinjiang was 5.219 million tons, a decrease of 32000 tons or 0.6% over the previous year; Cotton output in other regions was 602000 tons, a decrease of 147000 tons or 19.6% over the previous year. In 2021, the sown area of cotton in China was 30281000 hectares (45422000 mu), a decrease of 140.8000 hectares (2112000 mu) or 4.4% over the previous year. In 2021, the national cotton yield per unit area was 1892.6 kg / ha (126.2 kg / mu), an increase of 27.4 kg / ha (1.8 kg / mu) or 1.5% over the previous year.
According to customs statistics, China imported 2.15 million tons of cotton from January to December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%. In 2021 / 22 (September to December 2021), China imported 370000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 61.9%.
Statistics of reserve cotton wheel output in 2021
In 2021, the central reserve cotton wheel delivery and delivery were carried out in conjunction, with a total of 99 trading days, with a total of 1.5428 million tons of hanging auction, and the actual transaction volume was 1.2032 million tons, with a transaction rate of 77.99%. The average transaction price was 17998 yuan / ton, which was converted into 3128b price of 19434 yuan / ton. After the release of central reserve cotton in 2021, the current inventory has fallen below the warning line of 1 million tons, and there is a demand for rotation in the future. This year is the longest and largest rotation in a year since the implementation of the reserve cotton rotation system, which has effectively alleviated the tension between market supply and demand and restrained the rapid rise of cotton prices.
Domestic cotton inventory statistics
According to the industrial inventory report released by cotton information network, as of December 30, the industrial inventory of cotton in warehouse of textile enterprises was 815600 tons, a decrease of 34100 tons compared with the end of last month and a year-on-year increase of 13300 tons. Among them, 28% of enterprises reduced cotton inventory, 21% increased inventory, and 51% remained basically unchanged.
The national cotton market monitoring system predicts the domestic cotton production, sales and inventory in 2021 / 22: China's cotton output is 5.801 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 149000 tons, a decrease of 2.50%; The consumption was 8.24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 370000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%; The import volume was 2.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 436600 tons, a decrease of 15.90%; The ending inventory was 6109400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 161700 tons, a decrease of 2.66%; The production and demand gap was 2.439 million tons, 221000 tons narrower than that in 2020 / 21.
4、 Downstream cotton yarn Market
In the first quarter, the startup rate of textile enterprises remained at a high level, the downstream demand was good, the overseas epidemic situation was repeated, and the impact was great. The orders returned to China, and the cotton yarn market rose steadily all the way. In April, due to the impact of the rebound of the epidemic abroad, the demand was limited, and the inventory of grey cloth in the downstream increased, resulting in the downward consolidation of cotton yarn.
Due to the growth of consumption in the domestic traditional off-season, the peak season from July to August was advanced, and the demand for cotton yarn was good, so it began to enter the upward channel. In September, affected by the dual control policy and the resumption of work in Southeast Asia, the orders began to decline. The weaving and printing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang started at a low level, and the grey cloth showed a trend of accumulation of stock. The high cotton price made the downstream price transmission sluggish, and the consumer demand weakened, Domestic gold, silver and ten signs are not limited, and the cotton yarn market is in the doldrums. At the end of September, the cotton market rose sharply, reaching a new high. The sharp rise in costs led to a sharp rise in the cotton yarn market.
In October, the cotton yarn market was at the highest level in 10 years. Boosted by the rise of cotton price, the cotton yarn futures rose continuously, the cotton yarn enterprises were bullish, and the enterprises had full confidence in raising prices. In November, due to the long-term weakness of downstream demand, the cost was unable to support, and the downstream resistance to high cotton prices, the cotton yarn prices began to fall.
In December, the cotton yarn market continued to decline, the demand support of the industry in the off-season was insufficient, the yarn inventory reached a high level in recent years, the grey cloth end also maintained a weak market, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, the raw materials operated at a high level, and the downward transmission was blocked. Cotton yarn enterprises are mainly de stocking, with low enthusiasm for start-up production, preferential prices for merchants' return of funds, and cold cotton yarn transactions.
According to the data of China Cotton Association, as of the end of December, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.23 days, up 1.87 days month on month; Grey cloth inventory days were 32.97 days, up 1.08 days month on month, and gauze inventory was at a high level in the same period in history.
Customs data show that in 2021, China imported 2.12 million tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 180000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 11.4%. In 2021 / 2022, China imported 630000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 110000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 10%.
5、 China's textile and garment export and domestic sales in 2021
According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in 2021, the cumulative export volume of China's textiles and clothing was 315.46 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.38%, of which the cumulative export volume of textiles was 145.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.60%; The cumulative export volume of clothing was 170.26 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Export data show that China's exports are strong.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles of Enterprises above Designated Size in China reached 1384.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. From the data, China's textile and clothing demand showed an obvious trend of high before and low after, and the demand growth slowed down significantly in the second half of the year.
6、 Domestic textile raw material market in 2021
According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of bulk commodity prices in 2021, there were 18 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the textile sector, of which 17 kinds increased by more than 5%, accounting for 94.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were spandex (54.11%), dry cocoon (54.09%) and lint (48.23%). The month on month decline of commodities was 0. The average annual increase and decrease of this year was 25.51%.
7、 Future forecast
From the supply side: internationally, according to the latest supply and demand report of American agriculture, the global cotton output increased to 26.34 million tons in 2021 / 22. Due to the sharp rise in international cotton prices this year, the global planting area will probably increase in the next year. Domestically, according to the prediction of the national cotton market monitoring system, the intended cotton planting area in China will be 43.613 million mu in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 422000 mu, an increase of 1.0%.
From the perspective of substitutes: viscose staple fiber and polyester staple fiber, as substitutes for cotton, have increased by different ranges in 2021. From the perspective of trend, the increase is less than that of cotton. The price of viscose staple fiber at the end of the year was 12180 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.64% over the beginning of the year; The price of polyester staple fiber at the end of the year was 7076.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.98% over the beginning of the year. The price of cotton at the end of 2021 was 22206 yuan / ton, an increase of 48.23% over the beginning of the year. The sharp rise of cotton market makes the advantages of substitutes appear. After October, the immediate profit of cotton yarn and polyester yarn is better than cotton yarn. The price of 32S polyester yarn was 13375 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 14025 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 4.86%. The price of 30s cotton yarn was 15233 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 18266 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 19.91%. If the price difference continues to expand, the number of enterprises switching to the production of blended yarn and polyester yarn may increase. Some downstream enterprises began to adjust the yarn structure, expand the output of blended yarn and pure polyester yarn, and reduce the output of cotton yarn, which will form a certain pressure on cotton consumption in the future.
On the demand side: in 2021, thanks to the good domestic epidemic prevention and control measures, the cotton textile market had a good start at the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, it has been in a situation of strong demand. Supported by the return of orders from outside Shanghai, the cotton yarn market rose sharply. At present, the demand of the textile industry continues to be weak, the downstream depression and poor demand make the cotton price rise weak, the downstream end consumption is difficult to undertake high costs, and the poor transmission of the industrial chain continues to put pressure on the upstream. The national cotton market monitoring system predicts the domestic cotton production, sales and inventory in 2021 / 22: the estimated cotton consumption is 8.24 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 370000 tons, a decrease of 4.30%. In 2022, the global cotton supply and demand will be more neutral, the foreign pattern will be tighter than the domestic one, and the foreign cotton price is expected to be stronger than the domestic cotton price. At present, China's supply and demand data are performing well for the time being, and cotton price support remains strong.
Cotton outlook in 2022: global cotton consumption weakened, and domestic downstream demand was difficult to accept high-priced raw materials. At the end of 21, the accumulation of textile enterprises increased, and the procurement of raw materials slowed down. In the long run, China's textile and clothing consumption has entered a low growth stage. COVID-19's mutation has increased the uncertainty of the epidemic. It is expected that the domestic sales drive will weaken in 22 years, and the demand for textile clothing will increase faster than before. Although the demand is not satisfactory and the cotton planting area will increase again in 2022, the planting cost will also rise simultaneously, which will support farmers' psychological selling price of seed cotton in the second half of the year. At the same time, the national reserve inventory is low and there is rotation demand. These good news will also support the cotton price. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate at a high level in the first half of the year and the cost support will gradually weaken in the second half of the year, It mainly focuses on the impact of China US trade relations on cotton imports, the price expectation of farmers under the rush harvest of new cotton and planting costs, and considering the impact of the epidemic on the world, the market in the second half of the year is expected to be less than 21 years, but it is generally at a high level.
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