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Repeated epidemics, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, unified market... Are you ready for Chinese textile enterprises under the great changes of the times?

Repeated epidemics, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, unified market... Are you ready for Chinese textile enterprises under the great changes of the times?

2022-05-10 10:12

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 for more than two years, it has brought great damage and harm to human society. As a livelihood industry, textile cannot be spared. China's textile industry has made continuous efforts to overcome difficulties and contribute to the revitalization of the world economy and the textile industry.

In 2021, the revenue of Enterprises above Designated Size in China's textile industry increased by 12.3% year-on-year, the profit increased by 25.4%, and the export of textile and garment reached 315.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, a record high. Driven by the positive impact of RCEP and the "double cycle", the export of textile and garment increased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022. The performance of major listed textile companies is better than the average level, and the performance of sports brands is eye-catching driven by the Winter Olympic Games. All these show the development toughness of China's textile industry.

After the 2022 Winter Olympics, a new round of epidemic caused by Omicron mutant virus surged to China; The sudden conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the global economic, financial, energy and supply chain crisis, which directly hit the rising textile industry and added variables to the world. Southeast Asia liberalized the entry restrictions, and the textile industry recovered rapidly with its cost and other advantages; The United States took the opportunity to manipulate "Xinjiang cotton" again and illegally withhold clothing and other events, resulting in the outflow of textile and clothing orders, and Chinese textile enterprises are once again facing great challenges.

1、 Superposition of epidemic situation and future world emergencies in the next century

As previously judged and recognized, the COVID-19 is not an ordinary regional public event, nor is the Russia Ukraine event an ordinary regional conflict. The extent, scope and duration of its damage to human society and the world economy exceeded expectations. This has a more complex and far-reaching impact on China's textile industry, which is highly globalized and deeply integrated.

1. Era change: post industrial era

Scientific and technological innovation and the fourth industrial revolution have led to changes in production, lifestyle and even human social relations. The transformation from industrial society to post industrial society foreseen by Drucker and Toffler is taking place.

The new scientific and technological revolution has increased productivity and promoted economic development at an unprecedented speed, but the gap between the rich and the poor and the digital divide have widened. Some emerging economies, especially China, have become a new map of innovative development, promoted economic and social development and created a new pattern of the world.

On the other hand, the industrial revolution shakes the authority of capital and the hegemony of the gold dollar, extreme egoism wantonly changes the increasingly perfect global market economic system, and the multilateral order is wantonly destroyed by the "defenders of free values": using national forces to set "traps", suppress other countries' scientific and technological enterprises, prevent scientific and technological cooperation and free competition, abuse long arm jurisdiction and sanctions, force commercial data, and cut off normal trade and supply chains.

These imbalances, inadequacies, contradictions and paradoxes in the great change show that the free market economy and industrial social system based on "economic rationality" are facing the challenges of the times and the dilemma of the end.

2. World textile in the changing times

When the WTO was established in 1994, the first thing was to abolish the distorted multi fiber agreement (MFA) in a decade and declare the return to the principle of multilateralism and free trade. China's accession to the WTO in 2011 and the cancellation of quotas in 2015 made the world's textile and garment industry the first to implement multilateral free trade, benefiting both developed and underdeveloped economies, including the United States. At the end of the transition period, when China fulfilled all its commitments, developed countries refused to recognize China's market economy status. Obama made it clear that the "trans Pacific Partnership" (TPP, which involves the provisions on Chinese textiles) is a part of the strategy to contain China. Trump disregarded the facts, claimed that China's accession to the WTO would bring unemployment to the United States, renovated NAFTA, increased the "poison provisions" against China, and used textiles and clothing as a tool of trade friction with China. During the epidemic, there was no bottom line to spread rumors, discredit Xinjiang cotton and coerce manufacturers Buyers and brands abandon Xinjiang cotton and products, manipulate political issues and crack down on Chinese textile enterprises.

3. The impact of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its future trend

The scientific revolution, the industrial revolution, the superposition of the 50-60 year Conrad cycle and the 10-year financial cycle, as well as the manipulation of populism and "political correctness" by Western politicians in the election year, all these positive and negative forces and positive and negative feedback have kept mankind away from equilibrium turbulence. This is a feature of the world's unprecedented change in a century. The epidemic situation and war conflict are major disturbances at the critical point, which may affect the direction of mankind at the crossroads.

The mutated virus has spread all over the world again, affecting China and has a high incidence in many places, impacting the world economy and even China's textile industry again. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further deepened the division and confrontation in the world, exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and further expanded the injustice in the world epidemic. Hegemonic sanctions and war have led to energy, food and inflation crises, raising prices, while the stocks of Wall Street and military industrial complex have soared, and the arch fire of interest groups has escalated the war and made peace difficult to achieve.

Therefore, in the face of major events such as the COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it may determine the future of China and the world to identify the general trend, respond correctly, be yourself, do well in the present and plan for the long term. Of course, it is also related to the future trend of China and the world's textile industry.

2、 Chinese textile enterprises facing world challenges

In the face of repeated epidemics and conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, which have a great impact on the world economy and China's textile industry, textile enterprises must first have a basic judgment on the development of the industry. That is, 1) textile will always be a growing industry in the world economy, and Chinese textile will occupy an important or even dominant position at both ends of supply and demand in the world economy for at least a long time; 2) The epidemic situation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pose a great challenge to the great uncertainty of the world textile industry. Even in the past, the duel of different ideas around the future human development will not disappear in a long historical stage.

Therefore, we can understand the meaning and internal logic of building a "community of shared future for mankind" embodied in a series of major policies and measures from the "the Belt and Road" initiative in 2013 to the "opinions on building a unified market" in 2022. This is not only the macro policy and guidelines, but also the starting point and lever fulcrum of textile enterprise strategy, and the road map of high-quality sustainable development of textile industry.

1. Jointly build a high-quality sustainable development road for the textile industry of the "the Belt and Road"

The the Belt and Road is the road to a community with a shared future for mankind and the foundation for building a global textile sharing, coordinated and inclusive development. The outbreak of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have blocked the textile supply chain, affected the operation of the China EU train, depressed the market and damaged the textile trade. However, the United States and other countries still have no bottom line to attack the the Belt and Road, discredit China's anti epidemic and peace promotion efforts, intimidate brands and traders, and block global textile cooperation. This just proves that the "the Belt and Road" represents the right path in the world and is the foundation for revitalizing the world's textile industry.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, some enterprises have optimized their global layout along the "the Belt and Road", bypassed barriers, expanded cooperative investment and textile trade in countries along the belt and road, helped the development of textile industry in countries and regions along the belt and road while expanding enterprise space, and enabled the textile trade of these countries and regions to drive the growth of global textile industry. The the Belt and Road has made positive contributions to combating the global epidemic, saving the declining market and revitalizing the global economy.

2. Free trade agreement, construction of textile multilateral system

The "regional comprehensive economic partnership" (RCEP), initiated by 10 ASEAN countries, including 15 countries including China, is the largest free trade area, which has come into force since January 2022. Covering a population of 3.5 billion, GDP and trade volume account for about 1 / 3 of the world respectively. The region is concentrated in major textile and garment production and export countries. China's total economy and textile trade are dominant in RCEP. It is conducive to enhancing Asia's position as the economic center of the world.

The signing and entry into force of RCEP is conducive to the construction of WTO free trade principles and multilateral system, breaking through the countercurrent of unilateralism trade protection. The entry into force of RCEP and China's application for accession to cptpp are no less significant than the end of China's "WTO entry" and "MFA", especially conducive to the sustainable development of the textile industry.

RCEP will fully release the comparative advantages and potential of various countries, solve the difficulties caused by the epidemic, and reshape the order of global economic cooperation, trade freedom and multilateralism.

3. Internal and external "double circulation": toughness and concentration of China's textile industry

"Double circulation" was put forward when anti globalization, unilateralism and trade protection were rampant, the epidemic spread and the world economy was in trouble. It aims to give full play to the advantages of China's industrial scale and the huge domestic demand market potential, base itself on the domestic market, and promote the dual cycle of domestic and international resources and market, so as to cope with the complex changes of the times.

China is the world's largest textile and garment manufacturer, with the most advanced and comprehensive production system. It is also the largest trading country and potential consumer market. Based on the domestic market and resources, China will expand the circulation of domestic and international resources to the market. "Double circulation" is not only an effective strategy to tide over the difficulties, break the blockage and get out of the dilemma, but also an idea to build a healthy global industrial network. In the medium and long term, the domestic double cycle will highlight toughness and bring vitality to the international cycle, so as to promote the construction of the global textile industry network. Two years after the launch of the "double cycle", a number of enterprises that have achieved results through technological and management innovation and the idea of two cycles from resources to market at home and abroad have emerged in China's textile industry, and have bucked the trend in recent years. For example, Silk Reeling Enterprises on the border between Yunnan and Myanmar develop silkworm breeding bases in Yunnan and Myanmar with mulberry and silkworm breeding technology, use scattered land and labor resources to help get rid of poverty, provide high-quality mulberry silk for the international high-end market, and develop downstream and terminal products based on the advantages of domestic industrial chain. Even in the case of severe epidemic and labor difficulties, it still maintained profit growth.

4. Build a unified market and activate the vitality of enterprises

The opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market were issued on March 25, 2022, which has special meaning. Facing the challenges of global free trade and multilateral order being broken, and the global textile market and supply chain being torn apart, China will deepen reform, expand opening-up, establish the dominant position of enterprises in the market, eliminate market access barriers and regional barriers, reduce transaction costs, standardize market behavior, further improve the market system and activate market vitality.

The textile industry is the first industry in China to be marketized, privatized and participate in international competition, with the vast majority of small and medium-sized enterprises. The opinions put forward the goal of building a market economy with Chinese characteristics, which is conducive to giving full play to the advantages of China's large market and industry, promoting the business environment and effective allocation of industrial capital of textile enterprises, helping textile enterprises to explore new market space and enter new industrial fields, and create new digital and virtual formats.

Standardizing industry standards and unifying the big market is also an important prerequisite for accelerating the double cycle.

5. China Expo and consumer Expo: an innovative platform for balanced growth

The opening of the first China International Import Expo (ciie) in 2018 in Shanghai is called an innovation in the history of world trade, abandoning mercantilism and traditional international trade concepts and practicing the concept of "the Belt and Road" cooperation and sharing. Similarly, the first China international consumption Expo (CICP) in 2021 embodies the idea of balanced development, balanced import and export trade, and production and consumption.

Through the two trading platforms of ciie and CICP, import advanced technology and equipment and all kinds of consumer goods, including high-end luxury and fashion products, to help industrial upgrading. Meet the growing consumer demand, promote trade with countries along the "the Belt and Road" and accelerate the "double cycle".

These two platforms help the textile and garment industry transform to a new globalization and globalization.

6. Innovation: the eternal driving force of China's textile industry

Textile enterprises under the impact of the epidemic in the great changes in the world need to be sensitive to the changes and risks of the market and industry, avoid harm and seek profit, find arbitrage opportunities, and enhance the anti risk and viability of enterprises. More entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship are needed.

Transform scientific and technological achievements into applied technologies and products, further transform them into new application scenarios, new fields and new markets, and explore new space for enterprise development.

The Internet of things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, industrial cloud and big data (iabcd) enable traditional textile production and realize advanced manufacturing, innovate operation processes and management organizations, improve quality, increase efficiency, reduce cost, reduce consumption and save energy, improve the core competence of enterprises, explore new business formats, new platforms and new business models, accelerate straight roads, overtake on curves, change lanes, and open up or enter new venues.

The management innovation awards in recent years have provided rich cases: textile enterprises use innovation to help fight the epidemic, deal with crises and challenges, promote advanced manufacturing and digital transformation, break through difficulties and counter trend growth.

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